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China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment in CEE Countries--Based on Gravity Analysis
Xiong, Xiaoyi ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Li, Yating (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
Over the past decade, economic and trade co-operation between China and Central and Eastern European countries has developed at a high rate. In the year of 2022, China has developed into an important trading partner with most CEE countries in terms of the ranking and share of total trade volume. However, problems such as trade surpluses and economic downturns in the post-pandemic era have made future cooperation between China and CEE countries facing a lot of new challenges. Based on the panel data of China and 16 selected countries in Central and Eastern European region from 2012 to 2021, this paper conducts empirical analyses and uses the extended gravity model to figure out the influencing factors of China's OFDI towards CEE countries. In addition, this paper also calculates the efficiency of China's OFDI based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model and finally give suggestions for the future.
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Impact of the international trade agreements between EU and African countries
Svoboda, Tomáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
The international trade policy between the EU and African developing countries covers the negotiations of various agreements aiming to promote mutual trade flows. The goal seems to both exploit the economic potential and support local development, including poverty or inequality reduction. To gain the maximum utilization of the benefits of trade, agreements need to be optimized and set toward the right degree of integration. Therefore, this paper provides the ex-post analysis of trade agreements concluded during the period 1948-2021 to evaluate their impact on mutual trade volume. The Fixed effects and the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation methods are used in combination with two sets of dummy variables. The results reveal the negative impact of the EU-African agreements across all depth levels in comparison to the general arrangements. Furthermore, the African continent shows a relative trade reduction among agreements containing too few and too many integration ratios emphasizing the necessity of finding the right balance. Disaggregating the effect into the African regions, West Africa seems to be the worst-performing area thus far. Finally, we have found strong evidence of trade diversion questioning the positive welfare of African nations. According to our findings, the renegotiation...
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The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the centre of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
Reinštein, Jakub ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a potentially world-changing Chinese economic and geopolitical strategy. In this thesis Gravity Model of Trade (GMT) and Network analysis are employed to assess the relative position of China in the International Trade Network (ITN), the overall impact of BRI, and its effect on countries in Central Eastern Europe and Western Balkans grouped in 17+1 mechanism. The results from Network analysis indicate that since the 1990s China is gradually moving towards the center of ITN. Subnetwork of BRI countries also exhibits higher cohesion and resilience to external shocks than ITN. GMT identified BRI as a significant and positive factor influencing exports, however in case of 17+1 mechanism countries the results are not robust. GMT was also successfully experimentally augmented with Network analysis variables demonstrating its possible enhancements and showing the path for further research. JEL Classification C23, C51, E27, F14 Keywords Gravity Model of Trade, Network Analysis, Belt and Road Initiative, 17+1 Mechanism Title The Belt and Road - Is China moving towards the center of international trade? Assessment of impact on Balkans and Central Europe using network and gravity analysis
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Impacts of Brexit referendum on European banks: evidence from Country-by-Country Reporting
Moravec, Petr ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Janda, Karel (referee)
1 Abstract In the negotiation period of Brexit in the years 2016-2019, banks in the UK had to plan their activity based on the expectation of whether they would have passporting rights in the future or not. The referendum's consequences may foreshadow what the actual Brexit will entail. This master thesis investigates the impact of the Brexit referendum in 2016 on the banking activity of the 45 largest European banks during the negotiation period. I use gravity analysis for inter-country transactions, and a brand-new "Synthetic Difference in Differences", together with Synthetic Control and standard Difference in Differences, for intra-country transactions. Although all of these methods were used in the literature in the context of the Brexit referendum, the Country-by-Country Reporting (CbCR) dataset that I use has not yet been used in such a context. I use turnover reported in CbCR by European banks as a proxy for banking activity in the years 2013-2019 and, thus, have four pre-treatment years (i.e., 2013-2016) and three post- treatment years (i.e., 2017-2019). Using the gravity model, I discovered empirical evidence that banks reported lower turnover since the Brexit referendum in their partner countries by between 14.5% and 44.6% relative to their domestic country. Yet, banks that have British...
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Modeling spatial interactions on the example of the regional cities
Zelenka, Jaroslav ; Marada, Miroslav (advisor) ; Chmelík, Jakub (referee)
Management and planning of transportation is becoming more important in terms of continuously growing intensity of spatial interactions, which are still mostly realized through transport networks. That's why we can deal with this specific problem of transportation geography using for example spatial interactions modeling. The general aim of the thesis is modeling of spatial interactions and their subsequent comparison with real flows by using calibration in order to predicate the future value of flows taking the planned changes in the transport network in consideration. The main tool used to achieve the goal of the thesis is the gravity model which was applied on the example of regional capitals in the Czech Republic. Based on accomplishments we may say, that centers with lower significance of monitored relations are characterized by further location towards most centers, small number of inhabitants, low intensity of model interactions and lower values of transport intensities with neighboring centers. With the center growth itself, its range of interactions with other centers grows as well. Key Words: spatial interactions modeling, gravity model, model interaction, transport intensity, regional capitals
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Observing Globalization using the Gravity Model of Trade
Dobiáš, Adam ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
This thesis investigates application of the gravity model of international trade on measuring a distance coefficient, which is known to be a proxy to globalization. This estimation is performed on a dataset containing information on EU 27 countries through the years 1996 to 2014. The presence of 10 post- communist countries enabled the author to perform the estimation on transformative economies, which had been isolated from their western trade partners for over 40 years. The division of the dataset into the Western and Eastern Blocs enabled measurement of convergence of the intra-blocs trade - the second goal of this thesis. This measurement was done through newly introduced intra-blocs trade variables that enabled measurements of both directions of trade. Through the application of this model on 10 sections, these measurements could be performed on single trade components. The analysis shows a substantial heterogeneity between single sections both in distance coefficient and inter-blocs trade. An increase in the level of globalization was observed in 9 out of 10 sections and convergence of some sections between the blocs was also found. Finally, globalization was found to progress with varying speed within single SITC sections during periods of economic crises. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Comparison of Factors Determining Czech Exports in Different Aggregations: Analysis by means of an Adjusted Gravity Model
Smotlachová, Eva ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to estimate determinants of Czech export. The key novelty of the research consists in estimating export flows at three different levels of aggregation (total, machinery, automobiles) and a subsequent comparison of results. An augmented gravity model is implemented for the empirical research and estimated with the use of Ordinary least squares (including time or country dummies) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators. Consequently, we propose the comparison based on the Poisson estimates due to incontestable weaknesses of the OLS estimator. Besides, we emphasize the importance of identifying the panel data structure, as we have obtained different results under the two structures (time series and cross-sectional). The predicted models reveal a substantial impact of home and partner's GDP, distance and the European Union. Total and machinery export seem to follow same tendencies, whereas the development of Czech automobile export differs and evolves on an idiosyncratic path. Therefore, it does not coincide with a path expected by trade theories based on the assumption of perfect competitive markets.
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Various Estimation Techniques of the Gravity Model of Trade
Davidová, Lucie ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with alternative estimation possibilities of the gravity model in trade. We provide the reader with a synthetic methodological overview of the technical problems with the estimation of gravity equations. Consequently, we test for the heterogeneity of data sets used in gravity models of trade which leads us to a conclusion that behavioural patterns of exporters and importers built in the datasets are very complicated and a single generalized specification of gravity equation can lead to bias in estimates and/or to similarly generalized conclusions that hide important robust idiosyncrasies in behavior present in some subsamples of economic agents. Both the theory of estimation techniques and dataset heterogeneity are applied in the empirical part estimating Austria's export function.
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